Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh

I rec this, as we should go for every seat in New York, Jerome

Not to be impolitic, but John McHugh (R-NY) is a dolt. He seems smooth. But he's got nothing but standard-issue GOP talking points, and even on those, he's about six months behind and liable to screw it up. Take his latest on Iraq:

Will the Iraqis step forward and carry on their shoulders that which the American military has been carrying on theirs? If they don't, then we have to begin to face reality.

Begin to face reality? On Iraq? Well, we had to hit him on that ...

That sound-bite just seemed to capture a certain mind-set so beautifully. The mind-set of Friedman Units of time, of corners turned and light glimpsed at the ends of tunnels. Of denial. I mean, some time in the future we may "begin to face reality"? What a wanker.

So, we had to go with it ...

Here's the ad:

It's part of a general strategy of earned media, phone-banking, etc to tie McHugh ever more strongly to the Iraq debacle using his own words against him. Because Iraq ... well, that's the biggie. And since we have limited resources, we can't lose our focus on the biggest issues of all.

Just to give a little context on the "disappearing Congressman" visual of the ad, we did a previous ad with that image. We bought about 500-600 points in each market of that ad, and the word-of-mouth and memorability of it gained us a lot more exposure than that. Just about everyone has seen or heard of this ad a number of times ...

Now, we're not a highly funded campaign. In fact, we produce these ads in-house, with the same person (me) in charge of Internet outreach, policy, politics, media releases, media management, ad production, and ad placement ... uh, among other things. And we, well I, have followed a few basic rules to maximize our impact: repeat themes and visuals to make them stick better, concentrate each ad on a single theme/message to make it more clear in people's minds, come up with a single visual theme for McHugh (the "empty suit" visual), and stick to messages that can resonate with the news rather than build "issues" out of trivia (out-of-context votes on issues outside the biggies). Now, those aren't exactly earth-shaking insights, but they're particularly important in a less-funded campaign. And not followed enough, imo. Plus, by using McHugh's official photo, we are re-mixing and claiming his brand.

Luckily, though, we live in a very weird district: it's actually cheaper to reach people by TV than any other way. We get ads for 6-10 dollars per point. That's just crazy. But it has allowed us (since we have very little production costs because I make them ... this ad cost $200) to buy enough ads to actually make an impact, as long as we followed those rules, imo.

Back to the ad ... we knew, and the polls now reflect, that the electorate would turn back to Iraq strongly. John McHugh supports the policy, and the policy can best be illustrated by a burning car bomb. Rather than spend our time building case after case on a wide variety of issues, we're hanging a broad case all around a central pillar of Iraq.

{Bob Johnson is running in NY-23 against John McHugh. Donate if you can ... }



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Re: Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh (none / 0)

Oh, for the love of God, why don't YouTube links work? Anyone got a suggestion ... if not, I'll just make image links there ...
by BriVT on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 01:02:05 PM EST

Re: Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh (none / 0)

Ah, Jerome did some magic ... thanks.
by BriVT on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 02:10:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh (none / 0)

Scoop is reformatting w/o the brackets, so you have to re-paste after you preview...


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 02:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh (none / 0)

Ahhh ... thanks. I've been struggling with that for a while ...
by BriVT on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 02:19:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh (none / 0)

Speaking tryign to win all of NY, what the F is going on in NY-20?  Yesterday, the RT Strategies poll had Gillibrand +13, but today's Siena poll has Sweeney +14.  I looked into the crosstabs a little, and nothing jumped out as unusual:

Rep-Dem-Ind
RTS: 42-25-33
Siena: 44-29-27

M-F
RTS: 48-52
Siena: 49-51

Age brackets:
Didn't exactly match up, but were not inconsistent.

In the RTS poll, Reps polled at 64-32 for Sweeney, but 77-17 in the Siena.  Dems polled 82-16 for Gillibrand in the RTS and 73-21 in the Siena.  Independents polled an amazing 61-31 for Gilliband in the RTS, but flipped to 46-40 for Sweeney in the Siena.  WTF?

Unfortunately, it would seem to me that the RTS poll is more likely the outlier, but this type of disparity is disconcerting either way.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 02:27:25 PM EST

Re: Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh (none / 0)

Um...  Am I out of line if I point out that the fade from burning car to smiling candidate is a bit weird?  I think a more concerned expression would be better.  Like the personal injury lawyers always put on...


"I, even I know the solution: love, music, wine and revolution" -The Magnetic Fields
by CranesAreFlying on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 02:33:52 PM EST

Re: Adwatch NY-23: Reality Bites McHugh (3.00 / 1)

Never out of line to suggest anything ... there are compromises to be made when you make ads. And, with Bob, he's a great guy, a bold candidate, a tireless personal campaigner, but he just can't pull off "concerned" on camera without looking "mean." It's a quirk of his face or something. I had a few versions to work with, and I went with "slightly sunny with a squint of earnestness" over "man, that guy looks like he's coming to get me" and "what's he grinning about?"

Certain politicians pull off the full range of TV emotions better than many actors (Bill Clinton was the best TV talent I ever worked with, Harold Ford is great from what I see of his ads). Some don't. C'est la vie ...


by BriVT on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 02:49:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reality Bites (none / 0)

Yesterday Majority Watch issued a poll indicating that in the NY 20th District, Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand was leading incumbent Republican John Sweeney 54-41.  Today Siena College issues a poll saying that Sweeney has a double-digit lead.

WTF????


by global yokel on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 03:06:08 PM EST

Re: Reality Bites (none / 0)

I don't know. Personally, I thought the other poll was too optimistic, but then this one looks too pessimistic. I'd guess Sweeney had a low single-digit lead. I didn't notice: are either or both of these polls LV polls?

Likely voter models will look very, very strange in NY this year. I don't think anyone knows exactly what will happen. I do know this, though: the NY GOP is in a serious crisis. There is a massive difference in the parties right now when it comes to enthusiasm and organization. Literally anything can happen in NY this year. Anything. Don't count out a single race, but don't count on a single race, either (except Arcuri ... he's gonna win). Davis will probably win, Hall and Massa I think have good shots, Gillibrand has an OK shot, we have an outside, what-the-hell chance, and Harrison ... I have no idea. He's in a tough media market, of course.


by BriVT on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 04:24:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

today's poll is bogus (none / 0)

the poll yesterday seemed a bit optimistic, maybe 10 points optimistic.   The poll today was by Siena who has serious ties to Sweeney.

CQ has this as a toss up.  The Gillibrand campaign has an internal poll today with her up 42-40.  This is a tight race. No one is up double digits.  And Sweeney got hit with abramoff/northern marianna allegations in the areas largest paper this week.   None of that is in the current polls.   I agree with the above.

we've got two pick ups with Davis and Arcuri.  Massa looks good, Hall looks good, Gillibrand is competitive and the trends look great.   I think we'll take 3-6 seats but the reality is that the statewide races are so uncompetitive that i don't think anyone has ever seen this type of election.   Spitzer's lead in polls fluctuates between 50 and 52.  No one knows or cares about the comptroller race.  Cuomo is a crappy candidate but Pirro is under investigation.   Clinton is popular and running against a guy who was having kids with his chief of staff while he was married.   This is a weird year.  The way these things work i wouldn't be surprised if Bowers is right about NY and we are in for a correction.  

 


by democracyinalbany on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 06:58:05 PM EST

2nd Ad (none / 0)

I liked the 2nd ad, but I have a quibble with the voice over script.  At the end, the narrator says, "It's a nice suit, but when it comes to working for us, it's a little bit empty."

I think that "bit" in there breaks up the rhythm and weakens the punch.  

Suggestions:

"It's a nice suit, but when it comes to working for us, it's a little empty."

Or

"It's a nice suit, but when it comes to working for us, it's pretty empty."

The latter option here is stronger and doesn't really give any credit to McHugh.  If you're saying the suit is a little bit empty, that implies he's there sometimes.

Just a thought.


by Reece on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 10:31:38 PM EST


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